College football Week 5 odds, picks against the spread: Alabama is a home underdog against Georgia (2024)

It’s not too early to call Week 5 of the college football season “Separation Saturday” considering the matchups on tap. The slate is highlighted by the biggest game yet and also serves up a trio of top-25 clashes along with a handful of intriguing first-time conference pairings.

The epicenter for the weekend will be Tuscaloosa as Georgia and Alabama renew their rivalry. Even with an expanded College Football Playoff field, there’s no mistaking the importance of this game, especially considering five SEC teams rank among the top six in both polls.

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The one non-SEC team in that top tier is Ohio State, which heads to East Lansing to open Big Ten play against Michigan State. But the game to watch in the Big Ten is Illinois taking on Penn State in Happy Valley. Both teams are undefeated, two of the 26 remaining in FBS.

Louisville is among that group, and they will be in South Bend to face a Notre Dame team that seems to have straightened things out after its stunning Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois. The other top-25 contest on the docket is in the Big 12 between Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

And if you’re a fan of conference realignment, then Week 5 will definitely bring a smile to your face. The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC will all feature first-time conference pairings. There’s also a pair of Pac-12 reunions between Arizona and Utah as well as Oregon and UCLA, but those games will instead count in the Big 12 and Big Ten standings, respectively. Welcome to a new era on the college gridiron!

—Mark Ross

All games listed are on Saturday. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP poll. All odds are from BetMGM. For information on streaming,click here.

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No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State — Noon on ESPN

This is a top-25 game, but the excitement around this matchup plummeted after both teams got manhandled last week. With both Kansas State and Oklahoma State coming off losses, the Wildcats are favored at home by less than a touchdown.

The Cowboys made the final score close at home against Utah but trailed 22-3 late before a pair of garbage-time touchdowns. Oklahoma State didn’t reach 300 yards of total offense and that’s even with those last two mostly meaningless drives counting for 117 yards. It was ugly for most of that game on offense for the Cowboys.

The big problem with Oklahoma State’s offense has been the running game. The Cowboys are one of 20 teams in the country averaging fewer than 100 yards per game. Reminder: This is a team with Ollie Gordon II in its backfield. Getting Gordon going won’t be easy against a Kansas State defense allowing just 83.3 rushing yards per game.

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There are warts on the Kansas State side as well. The Wildcats are out to prove last week’s disaster in Provo, Utah, was a blip and not a warning sign of more struggles to come. There were a lot of Big 12 After Dark vibes (can we make that a thing?) in that 38-9 loss. BYU had a defensive touchdown, one of the stranger punt-return touchdowns you will see and won by 29 despite being outgained by more than 100 yards.

There were some elements of that game that felt a bit fluky, but the real problem for the Wildcats is that Avery Johnson was not good. The sophomore quarterback threw a pair of interceptions and had just 130 passing yards on 15-for-28 passing.

Both these teams are in need of a bounce-back performance, but only one will get it.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

Wisconsin at No. 13 USC — 3:30 p.m. on CBS

Can a team lose on a big stage in heartbreaking fashion as a favorite and still feel better about the direction of its program? That might be the case for USC, which lost in the last minute at Michigan last week. Now, the Trojans return to the West Coast favored by more than two touchdowns against Wisconsin.

After years of struggling on defense, USC limited Michigan’s physical offense to 322 total yards and 27 points, seven of which came on a pick-six. That’s a big step forward. Sure, Michigan is playing like the forward pass is a recent invention, but Trojans fans will likely take any sign of progress from the defense.

If the Trojans are truly improved, they should be able to take care of business against Wisconsin. The Badgers are coming off a bye week and got smoked at home, 42-10, by Alabama the week before. Wisconsin hasn’t exactly set scoreboards on fire so far, with only 28 points against Western Michigan and 27 against South Dakota. That was before quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down for the year with a knee injury in that loss to Alabama.

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Sophomore Braedyn Locke is set to step in. He went 1-2 as a starter last year, beating Illinois and losing to Ohio State and Indiana. He threw five touchdowns and no interceptions in those three games so he’s capable, but he did complete fewer than half of his passes.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame — 3:30 p.m. on Peacock

This is an early-season measuring-stick game for Louisville as it goes on the road to Notre Dame in one of the week’s biggest matchups. Notre Dame is roughly a touchdown favorite as it looks to win its third consecutive game following the meltdown against Northern Illinois.

Louisville comes into the game with a 3-0 record but has not yet been truly tested against a College Football Playoff contender. The Cardinals have dominated a pair of FCS teams (Austin Peay and Jacksonville State) and then held on for a 31-19 home win against Georgia Tech.

The big question for Notre Dame this week will be whether or not quarterback Riley Leonard and the passing game can start to show something this season. Leonard plays the game with a reckless abandon when he runs the ball, but has not yet made an impact with his arm. He finally threw his first touchdown pass of the season in last week’s win against Miami (Ohio), but is still only averaging 146.8 yards per game and has thrown more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one).

Louisville has its own veteran quarterback, Tyler Shough, who is in his seventh year of college football after transferring from Texas Tech (and Oregon before that). He is off to a dominant start with 850 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in three games. His 16.3 yards per completion are among the highest in the country. He is going against a Notre Dame defense this week that is allowing just 135.3 passing yards per game and only 9.8 points per game.

—Adam Gretz

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Picks against the spread

Colorado at UCF — 3:30 p.m. on FOX

Colorado hasn’t proven enough to show it is markedly better than its 4-8 record from last year, but it’s still jarring to see the Buffaloes as two-touchdown underdogs against an unranked, also unproven opponent. Central Florida is undefeated and can take a step to proving it is a Big 12 contender in this one, especially if it covers that big spread.

Deion Sanders’ group is fresh off a dramatic overtime win against Baylor last week. It took a Hail Mary to get to overtime and a touchdown-saving forced fumble to end the game, but Colorado won. The Buffaloes are 3-1 for the second year in a row, but Colorado won just one more game last season after that solid start.

The talented duo of Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter makes Colorado worthy viewing and can provide something to dream on as far as the Buffaloes improving, but the 28-10 loss at Nebraska is looking even worse after the Huskers lost at home to Illinois the following week.

UCF is coming off a bye week, and the week before needed a last-minute touchdown to complete an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback at TCU. Quarterback KJ Jefferson is putting up comparable numbers to what he did when he was with Arkansas. The sixth-year senior has five touchdowns and an interception while being a threat in the running game, but it’s been nearly two years since he threw for 300 yards in a game. He’s a tough matchup for a defense because of his size (6-foot-3, 247 pounds) and speed, but likely won’t be throwing the ball all over the field.

It’s also worth mentioning Hurricane Helene, which is expected to make landfall in Florida on Thursday evening. The hurricane should be clear of Orlando by Saturday, but rain is still in the forecast.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama — 7:30 p.m. on ABC

The calendar hasn’t turned to October yet but the biggest game of the college football season is on deck when No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama meet in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. The Bulldogs are slight road favorites even though the Crimson Tide have dominated their SEC foes in recent seasons.

For all of Kirby Smart’s success at Georgia, the one thorn in his side has been Alabama. Smart’s Bulldogs are 1-5 against the Crimson Tide, including last season’s SEC Championship Game loss that knocked the two-time defending national champions out of the College Football Playoff.

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This time, Smart won’t be facing his mentor and former boss Nick Saban. Instead, it will be Smart matching wits with Kalen DeBoer, who has already put his imprint on Alabama’s offense.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 49 points per game behind a balanced attack featuring dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe but also running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, a tandem that is averaging a collective nine yards per carry. On the other side is a Georgia defense that has yet to surrender a touchdown and could be getting back pass rusher Mykel Williams from injury.

The bigger question for the Bulldogs is on offense. Quarterback Carson Beck (seven touchdowns, no interceptions) has been solid, but the ground game struggled to find its footing last game at Kentucky. Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne has yet to really break out for his new team and Georgia’s collective offensive struggles were on full display in that 13-12 win.

Even though a lot of the attention will be on DeBoer’s offense and Smart’s defense, this matchup could come down to how the Bulldogs’ offense fares against an Alabama defense that has given up 26 points through three games.

—Mark Ross

Picks against the spread

No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State — 7:30 p.m. on NBC

With an overtime upset a week ago, Illinois is having flashbacks to 2012. The Illini stormed out to a 6-0 record that season, and with four wins in 2024, they’re two-thirds of the way to repeating the magic. The biggest hurdle to date is a heavily favored Penn State team eager to stay in the top 10 with a ranked win at home.

The listed total opened at 47.5 points, meaning with a 17.5-point spread, the Nittany Lions are projected to score 32 or 33 points, more than any team has managed against Illinois this season. The Illini defense is 15th in the nation in points allowed per game (12.5) and hasn’t surrendered a rushing touchdown, but faces a true test in Happy Valley.

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Behind juniors Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State has the 10th-best running attack in the country, so it’s a safe bet this one will be won or lost on the ground, especially since the Nittany Lions are 119th in pass attempts per game. PSU does manage to find the end zone through the air, hanging with Texas and Miami in terms of passing TDs per game, but the run accounts for almost half of their total yards.

Illinois’ offense hasn’t shown much to spook the Big Ten blue blood, failing to crack the top 70 in passing or rushing. If the spread is getting covered, it’s because the Illini turn the game into a slog, which seems likely given that five of Penn State’s last seven games have hit the under going back to last season.

—J.J. Bailey

Picks against the spread

Wild card picks

Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.

Austin Mock:Liberty/App State over 61.5

Chris Vannini:Auburn/Oklahoma under 47.5

Dan Santaromita: Utah -11 vs. Arizona

David Ubben: USF/Tulane over 64.5

Picks records

OverallWild card picksLast week

Chris Vannini

18-9

2-2

5-2

David Ubben

13-14

3-1

3-4

Austin Mock

12-15

2-2

4-3

Dan Santaromita

11-16

2-2

1-6

(Photo of Ryan Williams: Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images)

College football Week 5 odds, picks against the spread: Alabama is a home underdog against Georgia (2024)

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